An analysis of housing starts as an economic indicator

The reason is that central banks react to variables, such as inflation and the output gap, which are endogenous to monetary policy shocks. Endogeneity implies a correlation between regressors and the error term, and hence, an asymptotic bias. In principle, Instrumental Variables IV estimation can solve this endogeneity problem. In practice, IV estimation poses challenges as the validity of potential instruments also depends on other economic relationships.

An analysis of housing starts as an economic indicator

What is Fundamental Analysis? So, essentially, it all boils down to supply and demand; a country with a strong and growing economy will experience stronger demand An analysis of housing starts as an economic indicator their currency, which will work to lessen supply and drive up the value of the currency.

For example, if the Australian economy is gaining strength, the Australian dollar will increase in value relative to other currencies. Higher interest rates are attractive to foreign investors and as a result they will need to buy Aussie dollars in order to invest in Australia, this of course will drive up the demand and price of the currency and lessen the supply of it.

It is the biggest measure of the overall state of the economy. The GDP number is released at 8: The GDP is the aggregate total monetary value of all the goods and services produced by the entire economy during the quarter being measured; this does not include international activity however.

The growth rate of GDP is the important number to look for. Trade Balance Trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. This report is released at 8: CPI measures the change in the cost of a bundle of consumer goods and services from month to month.

The producer price index measures the price of goods at the wholesale level. Employment Indicators The most important employment announcement occurs on the first Friday of every month at 8: This announcement includes the unemployment rate; which is the percentage of the work force that is unemployed, the number of new jobs created, the average hours worked per week, and average hourly earnings.

This report often results in significant market movement. Durable Goods Orders The durable goods orders report gives a measurement of how much people are spending on longer-term purchases, these are defined as products that are expected to last more than three years.

The report is released at 8: Retail Sales Index The Retail Sales Index measures goods sold within the retail industry, from large chains to smaller local stores, it takes a sampling of a set of retail stores across the country. The Retail Sales Index is released at 8: This report is often revised fairly significantly after the final numbers come out.

Housing Data Housing data includes the number of new homes that a country began building that month as well as existing home sales. Existing home sales are a good measure of economic strength of a country as well; low existing home sales and low new home starts are typically a sign of a sluggish or weak economy.

Interest Rates Interest rates are the main driver in Forex markets; all of the above mentioned economic indicators are closely watched by the Federal Open Market Committee in order to gauge the overall health of the economy. The Fed can use the tools at its disposable to lower, raise, or leave interest rates unchanged, depending on the evidence it has gathered on the health of the economy.

An analysis of housing starts as an economic indicator

So while interest rates are the main driver of Forex price action, all of the above economic indicators are also very important. Fundamental Analysis Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis are the two main schools of thought in trading and investing in financial markets.

Technical analysts look at the price movement of a market and use this information to make predictions about its future price direction. Fundamental analysts look at economic news, also known as fundamentals. Now, since nearly any global news event can have an impact on world financial markets, technically any news event can be economic news.

This is an important point that I want to make which many fundamental analysts seem to ignore… One of the main reasons why I and all of my members prefer to trade primarily with technical analysis is because there are literally millions of different variables in the world that can affect financial markets at any one time.

Thus, since I and many others believe that all of these world events are factored into price and readily visible by analyzing it, there is simply no reason to try and follow all the economic news events that occur each day, in order to trade the markets.

An analysis of housing starts as an economic indicator

One of the main arguments that I have read that fundamental analysts have against technical analysts is that past price data cannot predict or help predict future price movement, and instead you must use future or impending news fundamentals to predict the price movement of a market. So, I thought it would be a good idea to give my response to these two arguments against technical analysis: I would also like to ask them how myself and many other price action traders can successfully trade the markets by learning to trade off of a handful of simple yet powerfully predictive price action signals: Looking at the daily spot Gold chart above, we can clearly see that support and resistance levels are important to watch.

Well, anyone who has traded for any length of time knows that markets often and usually react opposite to what an impending news event implies. Are there times when the market moves in the direction implied by a news event?

Yes, absolutely, but is it something you can build a trading strategy and trading plan around? The reason is that markets operate on expectations of the future.Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents August 23, / US Economic Indicators: Housing Starts Yardeni Research, Inc.

Housing Starts & Permits 1 Housing Starts 2 Building Permits 3. Months of Inventory, or absorption rate, shows how many months of sales it would take, at the current rate, to deplete the is the best indicator of where the future market is headed.

Demand has been so high that sales are postponed by lack of inventory. Housing starts is important because it is a leading indicator. Sustained declines in housing starts slow the economy and can push it into a recession.

Likewise, increases in . In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general slowdown in economic activity. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP (gross domestic product), investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth . Get the latest news and analysis in the stock market today, including national and world stock market news, business news, financial news and more.

Economic indicators are the keys to unlocking invaluable information about market behavior. If interpreted accurately, they can lead to successful trading and speculating, profitable investing, and proper policymaking.

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